Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.016924 0.019168 0.021600 0.024435 0.027648 0.031178 0.035353
2025-08-17 0.013001 0.015994 0.019519 0.023978 0.029475 0.036039 0.044483
2025-08-24 0.011120 0.014478 0.018662 0.024264 0.031581 0.040832 0.053449
2025-08-31 0.009626 0.013125 0.017691 0.024094 0.032863 0.044484 0.061111
2025-09-07 0.008738 0.012403 0.017379 0.024645 0.035016 0.049334 0.070696
2025-09-14 0.007610 0.011193 0.016233 0.023861 0.035155 0.051327 0.076371
2025-09-21 0.006820 0.010362 0.015510 0.023558 0.035881 0.054126 0.083366
2025-09-28 0.006049 0.009469 0.014589 0.022840 0.035870 0.055767 0.088679
2025-10-05 0.005777 0.009303 0.014734 0.023741 0.038390 0.061426 0.100698
2025-10-12 0.005461 0.009032 0.014679 0.024301 0.040391 0.066402 0.112025
2025-10-19 0.005192 0.008806 0.014669 0.024917 0.042511 0.071713 0.124339
2025-10-26 0.004805 0.008347 0.014230 0.024766 0.043310 0.074864 0.133207
2025-11-02 0.004472 0.007956 0.013884 0.024762 0.044393 0.078644 0.143633
2025-11-09 0.004098 0.007462 0.013318 0.024320 0.044663 0.081029 0.151783
2025-11-16 0.003877 0.007219 0.013170 0.024609 0.046265 0.085903 0.164932
2025-11-23 0.003610 0.006867 0.012793 0.024436 0.046982 0.089193 0.175347
2025-11-30 0.003467 0.006735 0.012807 0.024996 0.049127 0.095320 0.191793
2025-12-07 0.003163 0.006268 0.012151 0.024201 0.048560 0.096177 0.197806
2025-12-14 0.002947 0.005953 0.011761 0.023893 0.048924 0.098868 0.207751
2025-12-21 0.002703 0.005561 0.011187 0.023164 0.048366 0.099650 0.213769
2025-12-28 0.002655 0.005567 0.011406 0.024079 0.051280 0.107751 0.236053
2026-01-04 0.002573 0.005494 0.011458 0.024647 0.053506 0.114588 0.256189
2026-01-11 0.002502 0.005436 0.011536 0.025272 0.055900 0.121968 0.278183